On June 17, 2026, the Trump regime and the Iranian government signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), ostensibly bringing to an end the U.S. and Israel’s unprovoked and illegal war of aggression against Iran.
Was there a winner in this war? Was there a loser?
Let’s let the facts speak for themselves.
FACT ONE: Prior to the war, the Strait of Hormuz was open to shipping with no restrictions.
Under the MOU, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait — which was closed in February 2026 in response to U.S. bombings and the assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei — with no charge to commercial vessels, but for only a guaranteed 60 days. Further actions will be determined by discussions with other Persian Gulf states. As of June 22nd, Iran says it has closed the Strait again in response to Israel breaking the MOU commitment by continuing to fire on Lebanon, presumably at Hezbollah. The U.S. insists that the Strait remains open. The actual situation remains unclear.
The winner? Iran.
FACT TWO: Under the MOU, Iran has agreed it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
In 2015, Iran had already promised not to manufacture, possess, or use nuclear weapons, which would be achieved by limiting uranium enrichment and industrial capacity, and well as allowing inspections, making weapons production impossible. This agreement was formalized in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which was signed by China, France, Russia, the U.K., U.S., Germany, and the European Union.
Under the MOU, Iran has once again agreed to similar conditions, with the exception so far of allowing on-site inspections. The U.S. in return is cancelling sanctions it had imposed.
The winner? Iran.
FACT THREE: Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to possess enriched uranium but promised to never enrich it above 3.67%. Nuclear weapons production requires uranium to be enriched to 20% or more. The lower agreed to level allowed Iran to do what every other country in the world does – use enriched uranium for medical diagnostics and treatments, and for nuclear power but not weapons.
Under the MOU, it has been agreed that Iran can maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program allowing low-level enrichment, and that the U.S. will impose no new sanctions.
The winner? Iran.
FACT FOUR: Prior to the war, the Iranian government was firmly in control of the country. (This was very unfortunate as the government was a very repressive one, arbitrarily arresting and imprisoning many innocent civilians.)
Today, the Iranian theocratic regime has even more control. It is now ruled by Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and is even more hardline than before. The Trump regime had initially proclaimed its aim in waging war was to decapitate the government and remove the regime. They have only succeeded in assassinating the prior leader and replacing him with a more extreme alternative.
Under the MOU, regime change is not mentioned.
The winner? Iran, but not the Iranian people.
FACT FIVE: Prior to the war, the U.S. had 22 military bases in the Middle East across 10 countries, housing over 40,000 soldiers. Today, over 20 U.S. Middle East bases, widespread military infrastructure, and dozens of jets have been destroyed. The total cost of the conflict to the U.S. military now runs to tens of billions of dollars.
Under the MOU, the U.S. agrees to work out a plan to provide Iran with $300 billion for reconstruction and economic development. There is no mention of funds to replace U.S. military assets.
The winner? Iran.
FACT SIX: Prior to the war, Israel, Iran’s only military threat, still had considerable worldwide support. Today, Israel, in large part due to the war, is considered a pariah state. Significantly, it seems to have lost support from Donald Trump.
Under the MOU, Iran, the U.S., and allies are obliged to the immediately and permanently terminate of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, including ensuring Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. While Israel has not signed the MOU and continues fighting in southern Lebanon, it is facing increasing U.S. pressure to comply.
The winner? Iran. Certainly not Israel.
By every metric, Iran won this war.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (June 23, 2026): 431.10ppm
One year ago (June 23, 2025): 429.82ppm
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