By the time you read this blog, Canada’s 2025 federal election campaign will be over and voting well under way. As I write this on April 26th and anticipate voting results, this is what the situation looks like.
The gap is continuing to narrow! Two weeks ago, Mark Carney’s lead over Maple MAGA Pierre Poilievre was between 6 and 7 points nationwide, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker, which is managed by Éric Grenier of The Writ.
Carney was headed for a large majority.
As of today, according to Poll Tracker that lead has narrowed to 3.6% nationwide. Poll aggregator 338Canada also pegs the Liberal lead at between 3% and 4%. This spread should still be enough to secure a Liberal victory, but a majority is no longer guaranteed although it is still possible.
Even this small margin makes Carney’s victory likely due to how voter intentions play out across the country. Given Canada’s ‘first past the post’ electoral system, parties gain nothing by achieving a large majority in any given riding. Winning government is a matter of winning in a sufficient number of ridings, not necessarily winning the highest number of votes. While popular vote numbers can be indicative of likely outcomes, they do not necessarily predict final seat counts.
The Conservative vote is heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan where deep support gives the party a strong base. However, the party also gets far more votes there per riding than they need, essentially wasting thousands of votes as they win by lopsided majorities. The same pattern also holds with certain rural ridings nationwide.
The Liberals, on the other hand, have widespread but shallower support in many more ridings across the country. In this election, Carney’s team is also attracting strong support in multi-seat urban areas, particularly in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.
There are other factors at play that may affect the outcome. Poilievre and his election team have already been facing criticism, and at times open opposition from within the party for the campaign they have run. As I blogged about on April 2nd, it seemed that the wheels might be falling off Maple-MAGA Poilievre’s bus. Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke has continued to openly criticize the Poilievre’s campaign, as has Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Support for Poilievre from other senior Conservatives has been noticeably absent.
Then it was reported on Thursday April 24th that Maple-MAGA Poilievre might be in danger of losing his own seat! This would have been considered completely impossible when the campaign began. After all, he won the seat in 2021 with an astounding 50% support. There is certainly the appearance that Conservative campaign staff are worried, as they have moved large numbers of volunteers into the area to help get out the vote. Poilievre also unexpectedly scheduled his final Sunday evening rally to take place in his home riding.
Should Poilievre not only lose the election, which now seems a certainty, but also lose his seat, he will either resign as leader on election night or be forced to resign shortly after.
Poilievre is not the only party leader whose days may be numbered. Jagmeet Singh appears likely to lose in his own Burnaby Central riding. Overall, the NDP will almost certainly be reduced to fewer than 12 seats, which is the minimum required for official party status. Singh will either resign on election night or be forced to resign before long.
The entire federal Green Party is fighting for survival. It looks like the Liberals may defeat co-leader Elizabeth May in her own riding and the odds of co-leader Jonathan Pedneault winning his Montreal riding are slim. This would be not only a significant loss for the party, but also a loss for Canadian politics. Elizabeth May has repeatedly been recognized as one of the House of Commons’ most effective Members of Parliament.
Indications now are that Carney’s Liberals have enough support in enough ridings to win the election. The question remains whether they will win the 172 seats needed to achieve a majority, or whether they will win fewer, giving them a minority, which would necessitate support from another party in order to govern.
Like many progressive voters, I would be elated to see Carney held to a minority. This would have what’s left of the NDP, Bloc, and Green parties holding the balance of power and in position to push the Liberals in a more progressive direction.
It is clear that while the election ends on Monday April 28th, the political landscape will be in flux for months to come as resignations lead to leadership contests and conventions.
If you are, like me, a political junkie, you have a very exciting summer ahead of you.
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