Are the wheels falling off Pierre Poilievre’s bus?
Liberal leader Mark Carney got off to a bumpy start. On March 25th — day two of the campaign — during a stop in the Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova, Carney praised the Liberal candidate, Nathalie Provost, a survivor of the École Polytechnique massacre in Montreal, but got her name wrong and to make matters even worse, referred to the location of the massacre as Concordia University. He quickly apologized to Ms. Provost, but the gaffes added to the perception that he has poor French language skills.
It had also come to light that as Board Chair of Brookfield Asset Management, Carney was involved in moving Brookfield’s headquarters from Toronto to New York, and that as co-chair of two Brookfield investment funds dedicated to zero-carbon funding, had registered the funds in Bermuda to facilitate tax savings for investors.
Since Justin Trudeau had announced his resignation on January 6th, the Conservatives had seen their 25-point lead in the polls disappear as Liberal support surged above them. After Carney’s gaffes, they had reason to hope that in week one of the campaign, they might begin to close the gap in polling numbers. Given the shortness of the campaign, that would be a significant achievement.
And then this happened!
On March 27th, Kory Teneycke, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager, hit Pierre Poilievre’s campaign with a firehose full of gasoline, turned it on high, and threw a match. He announced that the Conservatives were on track to lose the election, releasing internal polling numbers taken in vote-rich Ontario, showing Carney’s Liberals 15 points ahead of Poilievre’s party – 48% of the projected vote compared to 33% for the Conservatives.
With 122 seats, Ontario is a must-win province for any party that wishes an election victory. Without winning a significant number of seats in Ontario, gaining a majority is impossible.
Reports are now surfacing that Teneycke’s opinion is privately shared by multiple other senior Conservative insiders, with one noting that, “The ground game is a complete and utter mess,” echoed by others who describe it as “dysfunctional” and “highly disorganized.”
Several sources are placing much of the blame on Poilievre’s chief strategist Jenni Byrne, who they say has overly centralized power and demonstrates no evidence of a master plan. She and Poilievre are said to listen only to a tight inner circle. Teneycke has said publicly that Poilievre needs to pivot to focusing on the U.S. threat to Canada or he will lose.
The no longer private rift in the Conservative party, coupled with the noted disorganization in the campaign, will make it exceedingly difficult for the Conservatives to attract volunteers in the numbers they need in Ontario. Lawn signs, door knocking, phone canvassing, and all the other elements that depend almost entirely on volunteers will be negatively affected, as Ontario party members who would otherwise have stepped up will now stay home and sit out the election campaign.
To make matters even worse, Trump had announced his intention to levy yet more tariffs on Canada, this time 25% on our automotive industry. This was a gift from heaven for Mark Carney as it immediately changed the channel away from his Quebec massacre gaffes and the Brookfield questions back to Trump, which is exactly where the federal Conservatives do not want the channel to be. Pierre Poilievre’s response? All he could muster was Trump should “knock it off” – a timid response when a forceful one was demanded.
Public infighting and airing of dirty laundry in the middle of a campaign is the kiss of death for any political party.
Pierre Poilievre has just been kissed!
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (April 1, 2025): 427.68ppm
One year ago (March 29, 2024): 424.75ppm
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Very good article, Tim. I didn’t know these things.