Kryptonite Seems to be Working on Poilievre

Unbelievable!

Since Mark Carney was chosen as Liberal leader on March 9, 2025, support for the Liberal party has surged in the polls. EKOS Politics latest poll, published March 13^th, shows the Liberals way ahead now with 49.5% support nationally, compared to 31.8% for the Conservatives, 8% for the NDP, 2% for the Green Party, and 5% for the Parti Quebecois.

EKOS conducted two polls at the same time — one by telephone and the other online. While the phone survey did have the Liberals at 49%, the online survey result was less dramatic with the Liberals at 42.3% and the Conservatives at 33.3%. Both EKOS polls reflected the surge in Liberal support, which is well explained in the March 15^th edition of The Rational National — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnIJewQzVZ8.

This surge in support is reflected in the thirteen polls reported by 338 Canada between Carney’s election as leader and March 19^th, with ten showing the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives or tied and only three still reporting a Conservative lead. It is also reflected in a March 17^th Angus Reid poll, which gave the Liberals a 5-point lead. Significantly, this poll reports, “41 per cent now view Carney as best suited to be prime minister compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre.”

In my March 13^th blog, I wrote about the importance of watching polling trends when trying to predict election outcomes. And Wow! Polling trends are definitely favouring the Liberals!  As of March 18^th, seat projections on 338 Canada show the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie for popularity, with Liberal odds of winning the most seats at 85% compared to the Conservatives at 15%. According to The Walrus magazine, 338 Canada has achieved an astonishing 90% forecasting accuracy rate.

Politrend, which tracks seat projections, is even more optimistic. On March 19^th, Politrend projected that the Liberals will win 182 seats, compared to 125 for the Conservatives, 6 for the NDP, 22 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens. Politrend updates their projections daily, so it’s an interesting site to check regularly — https://politrend.ca/.

Mainstreet Research projections are equally optimistic. On March 14^th, Mainstreet projected that the Liberals will win 179 sears compared to 127 for the Conservatives, 29 for the Bloc, 6 for the NDP, and 2 for the Greens. Mainstreet gives the Liberals a 61% probability of winning a majority, compared to an astonishing low of 1% for the Conservatives.

If, by chance, EKOS’s phone survery is correct, and if this holds until election day, the Liberals are headed for not just a majority but a supermajority. The last time a Canadian federal party secured at least 49% of the popular vote in a general election was in 1984. In that election, the Progressive Conservative Party, led by Brian Mulroney, achieved 50.03% of the popular vote and won 211 out of 282 seats in the House of Commons.

This trend is great news for progressives on the one hand, as it is now looking less and less likely that Darth Maple MAGA Poilievre will become Prime Minister. However, unfortunately a Liberal majority will no longer provide the federal NDP with the ability they had when holding the balance of power to push the Liberals to the left.

Justin Trudeau’s father, former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, once remarked that his most enjoyable time in office was when the 1972 federal election gave him only a minority government with the NDP holding the balance of power as that gave him the ability to push his caucus in a more progressive direction and to somewhat weaken the corporate wing of his party.

Expect a federal election to be called any day now and if more polls come out with numbers indicating a strong Liberal majority, then those of us who are NDP supporters will be able to abandon the thought that it might be necessary to vote Liberal in order to stop the Conservatives.

How much higher in the polls will Mark Carney go? Only time will tell!

Daily atmospheric CO₂ [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]

Latest daily total (March 17, 2025): 427.23ppm

One year ago (March 18, 2024): 426.02ppm