David Eby Had the Conservatives on the Ropes — Then He Called an Election

Has David Eby snatched defeat from the jaws of victory?

If only the premier had waited.

The opposition Conservatives were in complete disarray. Of the 44 MLAs they had elected in the 2024 general election, only 30 were left by the time Kerry-Lynne Findlay, on September 20^th resigned as leader. The departed MLAs had either voluntarily left the party or had been expelled.

Just two days before that, eight of those departed Conservative MLAs had created a new party, CentreBC, which was beginning the work to become officially registered. In the meantime, earlier in the week, right-wing populist party OneBC had regained status in the legislature with two sitting MLAs.

The Conservative split had given the NDP a comfortable majority in the legislative assembly.

The last pre-election poll, conducted by Liaison Strategies, had the NDP at 41%, ahead of the Conservative’s 36%. CentreBC and OneBC were polling at 4% each, while the Greens scored 12%. While the NDP lead was clear, it was also not insurmountable. Earlier polls had reflected a similar dynamic.

All the Premier had to do was wait. Wait for CentreBC to put down roots to the point that it would be much more unlikely for that party and the Conservatives to come back together.

If the past was any indicator, the Conservatives would continue to shoot themselves in their proverbial foot. One year from now, the premier could likely have called an election and comfortably claimed a majority.

Instead on September 22^nd, in a highly criticized move, the premier decided to call an election for October 24^th.

There had already been indications that the election call might backfire. On September 17^th, Angus Reid had reported that 51% of BC voters said they couldn’t enthusiastically support any of the parties, a sentiment shared by 41% of past NDP voters.

And reaction after the election call was swift. Angus Reid polled again and reported just two days later that the still unsettled Conservative party now had an 8-point lead over the NDP – 43% to 35%.

The Conservatives reacted quickly to the election call, nominating Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson as their interim leader. With the new leader at the helm, seven of the eight CentreBC ex-Conservatives quickly abandoned their new ship and rejoined their original party.

Doerkson does not come from the lunatic flank of the Conservative party. He is easily capable of sounding sane and rational. He seems to be generally considered ‘a nice guy,’

His centrist approach will work well for him, but he will face certain challenges. Some of his expressed views will be controversial. He opposes SOGI in schools, although he expresses support for the 2SLGBTQ+ community. He has also said he supports Indigenous people but has pledged to repeal the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA).

It has been noted that Doerkson has been named only interim leader of the Conservatives, and there is no guarantee that he will remain as leader after the election. And of course, the question remains as to whether he can hold together the fragile coalition of party members he has reassembled.

Both the Conservatives and the NDP face the possibility of vote splitting with five parties running: two progressive — the NDP and the Greens — and three conservative — the BC Conservatives,  CentreBC, and OneBC.

I am loath to make a prediction this early in the campaign but here goes. If nothing changes, the NDP will lose the election. David Eby will resign as party leader, possibly on election night.

Fingers strongly crossed that I am wrong.

Daily atmospheric CO₂ [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]

Latest daily total (September 30, 2026): 425.81ppm

One year ago (September 26, 2025): 424.29ppm