As you may be aware, TransLink will soon be building the first phase of an underground SkyTrain line along the Broadway corridor from the Commercial-Broadway station to Arbutus. If Vancouver city council has its way, by 2030 the new line will extend all the way to UBC at a cost estimated as high as $3.8 billion. (Let’s not forget to all check in in 10 years and see what the actual price tag is.)
I’ve blogged before about why I’m strongly convinced underground SkyTrain is the wrong option for this corridor, and how we’d be much better off with at-grade light rail. To start, it would cost a fraction of the current option plus at-grade light rail doesn’t use massive amounts of concrete, the production of which creates huge amounts of greenhouse gases.
Today, I want to point out the negative impacts TransLink’s Broadway corridor plans will have on affordable housing along this route.
Land values will appreciate enormously once this project is complete. This will inevitably result in the purchase and demolition of a vast number of existing houses and multi-storey walkups, not only along the SkyTrain route itself but also within a few blocks north and south, on either side of Broadway.
Much, if not all, of this housing stock is older and, therefore, affordable. It will most certainly be replaced by expensive condominiums far outside the financial reach of people currently living there, who, by and large, are renters because they can’t scrape together the money needed to buy their own home.
Given the above, I have mixed feelings about the recent news that with the SkyTrain extension, TransLink itself will become a land developer along the Broadway corridor.
On the one hand, this may be a wise move on the part of TransLink as it will likely reap financial benefits that would otherwise go to a private developer. Since TransLink is a public agency, these profits will stay in the public domain and can be used to build more public transportation.
On the other hand, TransLink will inevitably be contributing to the destruction of a lot of affordable rental housing. Where will these people live?
If I was on TransLink’s board today, it would be a tough decision. I would have to choose between private developers destroying affordable rental housing and pocketing the profit, or TransLink destroying affordable rental housing and keeping the profit in the public domain. In my view, the latter would clearly be the lesser evils.
This project is a done deal. Still, I can’t help but wonder how much of the existing affordable rental housing would remain standing had the choice been made to not build a $3.8-billion SkyTrain line underground, and go for at-grade light rail instead.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (June 16, 2020): 416.27 ppm
One year ago (June 16, 2019): 414.24 ppm
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There are many problems with the $3 billion Broadway subway.
1. There is nowhere near the ridership on Broadway to justify a subway. Current peak hour traffic flows are around 4,000 to 5,000 pphpd, yet the North American standard for building a subway is a transit route with traffic flows at least 15,000 pphpd.
2. The added operating subsidy for the subway, based on MetroLinx (Toronto) numbers is an added $40 million annually.
3. The maximum capacity today, according to Transport Canada’s operating certificate for the Expo and millennium Lines is 15,000 pphpd.
4. The Millennium and Expo lines use the proprietary Movia automatic Light metro system (the often renamed ALRT system) and there is great concern because of the dated nature of the system and that Vancouver is now the only customer for the near obsolete mini-metro, the the new owners of the proprietary system, Alstom will abandon production. No other company produces compliant vehicles.
5. Broadway is not the busiest transit corridor in Canada or North America, rather according to TransLink, when faced with possible legal action, claim “This is our region’s most overcrowded bus route.”
6. Current peak hour capacity of the B-Line buses on Broadway are under 2,000 pphpd. By increasing headway’s to 2 minutes, capacity will increase to 3,000 pphpd and eliminate pass ups! No need for a $3 billion subway.
7. Subways are not user friendly and are poor in attracting ridership. Overall ridership tends to decline.
8. The 50 year costs for the Broadway subway including capital costs, operating costs, rehab and financing amounts to about $1 billion/km! This means other transit routes will be cannibalized to pay for the subway.
The Expo and Millennium Lines need a $3 billion rehab to increase capacity beyond 15,000 pphpd. The subway is sucking money away from much needed repairs and modernization.
http://www.railforthevalley.com/latest-news/zweisystem/facts-dont-seem-to-matter-translink-gaslights-the-truth/
http://www.railforthevalley.com/latest-news/zweisystem/repeat-a-lie-often-enough/
http://www.railforthevalley.com/latest-news/zweisystem/the-charleroi-could-this-be-the-fate-of-the-broadway-subway/
You are obviously very well informed. I just wish the politicians who are supposed to be overseeing this project were as knowledgable as you. When I was on Vancouver City Council, many years ago I was horrified to become aware of the fact that there were citizens such as yourself who were much better informed on the RAV line than were most members of council. Thank you for your comment and thanks for the informative links as well!
Tim, the truth be known, there isn’t the ridership on Broadway to justify light rail. TransLink has deliberately offers a bus service that does not meet demand.
This subway is being built for one reason and one reason only, to act as a driver for building high rise condos to further launder off shore laundered casino money.
If one talks to real experts, they are puzzled why a subway. There isn’t the demand for a subway, which means huge subsidies must be paid annually to keep the damn thing operating.
The real fear is that if the costs for construction rise and they will, cut and cover construction will be back on the table.
Also not known is that the federal portion of the money must be in a form of a P-3 and that means SNC Lavalin is back in the frame.
Also not well known is that TransLink pays well over $100 thousand annually to the SNC Lavalin lead consortium operating the faux Canada line P-3, about $60 thousand annually more than if light rail would have been built instead.
A Broadway subway will drive up taxes and fares, crippling the transit system elsewhere.
It is so bad that i believe a criminal investigation should take place, but of course it won’t.
As for premier Horgan, the subway poses an updated FastFerry fiasco.
So nice to hear from you Malcolm! You were always a superstar on the RAV line file. You knew much more than most of my fellow city councillors.
I really appreciate your comments on the Skytrain extension west of Commercial. Sadly I believe we have lost the battle on this one.
Keep up the great work!
Tim, i agree with almost 100%. Here are my comments:
Speculation and land price inflation will not start with the completion of the subway project, as you state. It is already well underway.
The city’s anti-speculation policy, which was passed lat year when the broadway corridor plan was initiated, will be entirely ineffective in stopping speculation. It has loads of exemptions, and it completely ignores single family housing, which is a major problem.
You state that the cost estimate for “phase 2” – arbutus to ubc – is $3.8 billion. This is a gross under-estimate, based on outdated figures. Based on inflation and typical cost overruns, i have heard estmates of $5 to 8 billion.
By extending the skytrain from vcc to ubc in segments, translink is just digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole, both in terms of capital costs and operations and maintenance.
Plus, the current and projected ridership figures do no justify a skytrain line, let alone a subway line.
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I agree with all the points you’ve made, especially about the ineffectiveness of the current city council’s anti-speculation policies. Thank you also for the updated cost estimates for Phase 2 –even more expensive than I thought! Out of curiosity, whose estimates are those?
Visit smartforvancouver.com for alternatives
Tim. I agree its too late now. It should have been done in the 1990s but Premiers Harcourt/Clark took their advise from Socred Staff people and thats why we are at least 20 years behind especially in Vancouver. Coquitlam got the Rapid Transit they did not deserve in 2016 while Vancouver was left out. Many people do not understand that Vancouver with only25% of regional population accounts for 50% of regional ridership. Prior to 2008 there were 3 Vancouver Councillors on TransLink Board, 0 now.
The BC prov govt has to make changes to. BC Transit/TransLink and BC Ferries. City of Vancouver should plan for a population of over 1M and many
Housing projects should be 1/3,1/3,1/3 like False Creek South.
Long time no talk! I remember you as a transit expert way back when Harry Rankin was on City Council, and if I remember correctly you were a cab driver.
As always, the points you make are very valid. I will keep them in my file for future use. Keep up the great work.