Well, our federal election is over, and it produced one of the most unusual results in Canadian electoral history.
What follows is informed by a recent podcast, The Numbers, featuring Eric Grenier from The Writ and Philippe J. Fournier from 338 Canada. They always share a lot of valuable insights and interesting facts.
When was the last time the combined popular vote of the two strongest parties was over 80%? It was in the 1958 election when Dief the Chief, as John Diefenbaker was known, steered the federal Progressive Conservative party to an overwhelming majority, after having earned a slim minority win the year before.
When was the last time that two federal parties both obtained more than 40% of the popular vote? It was in 1930, and was more common before that as elections then were generally only between two parties. Interestingly, in 1979 both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals won over 40% of the seats (each won 282 seats), but the Liberals won 40% of the popular vote to the PC’s 35.9%. In 1972 both also won over 40% of the seats (264 to 263) but each won less than 40% of the vote.
When was the last time the New Democratic Party (NDP) did this poorly? It was in 1993 when they received 6.8% of the vote and won only 9 seats. In 2000 they did only receive 8.5% of the vote but they won 13 seats. These were the only times since its founding in 1961 that the NDP had received such small shares of the popular vote combined with so few seats.
Before that, we must go back into the distant mists of the past to elections fought by the NDP’s predecessor, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), to find results this abysmal. That only happened twice — in 1958, the CCF’s last election, when they earned just 9.5% of the vote and 8 seats, and in 1935 when the newly formed party won just 7 seats and received only 8.7% of the vote.
In 2008, Stephen Harper led the federal Conservative Party to a majority win with 37.6% of the popular vote, after previously leading two minority governments. This year, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives beat that, receiving 41.3% of the vote – their best result since the 2003 merger of the Progressive Conservatives with the Canadian Alliance. But they lost the election.
What is perhaps even more astounding is the margin by which Maple MAGA Poilievre lost his own seat. It was not even close. In the 2021 election he had won his Carlton riding by a margin of 20%. This time he lost by 5.2% (4,513 votes). When was the last time the Conservative Party received more than 40% of the popular vote but its leader failed to win their own seat? The answer is never.
Now, with Mark Carney’s Liberals having achieved a large minority of 169 seats — just three seats short of the 172 required for a majority — you can rest assured that the Liberals are doing their utmost to convince at least three of those elected in other parties to cross the floor. Those approached will be offered a number of treats, possibly including the promise of a seat in Cabinet. The most likely source for aisle-crossers will be the Conservative party.
As I predicted, on election night Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and resigned his position as leader of the federal NDP. Vancouver Kingsway MP Don Davies has now been appointed as interim leader, I think he’s a terrific choice with the skills to lead the party to reorganize and determine their next steps.
The next question is who will become the next permanent party leader. I am putting my money on a longshot. CLUE: He did not run for re-election. CLUE: He represented a riding in northern Ontario. CLUE: He has just completed a cross-country tour.
His name is Charlie Angus. He is a fiery orator and calls a spade a spade. He does not pull his punches. He is having none of the official NDP explanations for their poor performance – fear of Trump, fear of the Conservatives, blah, blah, blah. He says the party has stopped communicating effectively and has lost touch with its base of support.
This is a great time for political junkies such as me, with Pierre Poilievre seeking to re-enter the House by running in a by-election in Alberta (Battle River-Crowfoot member Damien Kurek will resign his seat); with the NDP leadership race; with the federal Green party trying to sort out their future; and with the People’s Party of Canada most certainly disintegrating after having received only 0.7% of the popular vote, their worst performance by far.
It will be a fascinating summer.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (May 4, 2025): 430.89ppm
One year ago (May 5, 2024): 426.69ppm
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Correction: The Conservatives did not win a majority in 2008. They won 143 seats and 155 were needed to form a majority. The Conservatives won a majority in the next election in 2011.