Poll Tracker: A great way to keep tabs on the election

As a self-confessed political junkie, I follow polls with great interest. However, not all polls are created equal.

Polling is a very difficult science and now it’s becoming moreso as people disconnect their land lines. This makes it increasingly difficult to contact participants because you need a random sampling that’s also representative.

Polling is becoming increasing unreliable for two reasons: mobile phones, which some pollsters don’t use due to cost, logistics and federal regulations banning automated calls; and people’s reluctance to take part in surveys, period.

Some polling firms have a better track record for accurate results than others largely because they have better methods, such as using larger sample sizes and/or ensuring they’re polling from different geographic areas so the sample demographics match the population as a whole.

A few months ago, I stumbled across what’s become my favourite polling site for the upcoming federal election — the Canada Votes 2019 Poll Tracker.

What makes this site so great and much preferable to any one individual poll is that it’s an aggregator of all publicly available polling data. The fellow who runs the site, Éric Grenier from CBC, gives a unique weight to each poll based on its past track record for accuracy. He also weights each poll based on sample size.

In my ideal world, after this fall’s federal election we would see a Liberal minority with the NDP and Green parties holding the balance of power.

Up until June 10, the Poll Tracker was predicting exactly such an outcome. Unfortunately, the Liberals have since dropped a bit, and the Conservatives have risen a bit. If the Liberals need to cobble together a majority in the House of Commons, the most up-to-date Poll Tracker results show it would now be necessary for them to gain the support of the the NDP and the Green Party of Canada.

If you’re a political junkie like me, check out Éric Grenier‘s Poll Tracker. Don’t forget that democracy only works when we take an active part in it, so as the polling data rolls in, do what you think is right to support the party of your choice.