America is about to suffer its most ignominious military defeat since losing the Vietnam War in 1975.
America and Israel launched their war of aggression against Iran on Saturday, February 28th with a series of unforeseen, widespread airstrikes, indiscriminately killing over 200 individuals from schoolchildren to senior Irani officials, and causing massive damage to the country.
This attack was a breach of the United Nations Charter’s prohibition on aggression and was illegal. At the end of the World War II, the world community, taking lessons learned from the war, had designated wars of aggression as international war crimes, specifying that it would be only acceptable for one nation to attack another nation if it had been attacked first or if it was in imminent danger of being attacked.
Neither of these circumstances precipitated the February 28th attack. In fact, Iran and America were in the midst of peace negotiations that were going exceptionally well.
While Iran’s military is no match for America’s military, nevertheless Iran appears to be on the brink of achieving a decisive victory. This is partly because it has been able to very effectively use its missile system to destroy American military bases in the region while even more effectively putting economic pressure on the U.S. and much of the rest of the world’s economy.
Iran’s success has been mainly due to their military taking control of the Hormuz Strait. Not only does 80% of the world’s oil flow through this narrow conduit but so does much of the world’s fertilizer and helium. (Helium is used as a propellant and also in computers, smartphones, AI, and MRI machines.)
As of Easter weekend — five weeks into the war — American gas prices had risen to over $4 per gallon. This already very unpopular war was quickly becoming even more unpopular as food prices soared and a shortage of computer chips developed.
Days of escalating American threats culminated on the morning of April 7th with Trump pledging that Iran’s “whole civilisation will die tonight” if they did not agree to his demands, particularly the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As usual, it was only a matter of time before Trump backed down. Late that evening, he announced that America had agreed to a two-week truce, mediated by Pakistan, with the main condition that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. Both Iran and Israel appeared to support this agreement.
Not surprisingly, implementation has proven problematic. While it was initially announced that the truce included a cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Israel is disputing that and continues to bomb. The US is supporting the Israeli position but is so far holding to the truce.
And Iran continues to assert its control of the Hormuz Strait. Their leaders did agree to open the waterway but only on the condition that each ship pay a toll – a clear ploy to raise funds for Iran. Other Middle East countries are protesting that charge, while Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanon threatens to provoke retaliation by Iran.
Face to face discussions will soon take place but the situation remains unstable and unpredictable. And so far, the war has changed little in Iran.
It remains completely unclear what Trump hoped to achieve in starting this war and America will almost certainly finish it having lost credibility world-wide. Numerous Middle East countries will now no longer want to host American military bases. Trump’s pronouncements and commitments clearly cannot be trusted, while his threats against NATO and other institutions only further isolate America.
Iran will be left with permanent control over the Hormuz Strait. This will give it enormous leverage in international affairs. Nations that want permission to transport oil through the Strait will at minimum likely have to agree to lift their economic sanctions against Iran. The country could continue to charge an exorbitant toll for passage or threaten restrictions on unfriendly regimes, further destabilizing world economies.
On February 28th Trump launched what he thought would be a quick and decisive war. Instead, he is about to suffer a decisive and humiliating defeat.
Except for its alliance with Israel, America will have chased America out of the Middle East.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (April 08, 2026): 431.83ppm
One year ago (April 09, 2025): 429.12ppm
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