Last year at about this time. I offered my predictions for 2025. Let’s take a look at the year in review and see how I did.
2025 PREDICTION ONE: Donald Trump will not impose import tariffs on Canadian goods.
I get an F on this one. What was I thinking?
2025 PREDICTION TWO: Trump’s strategies will generate a deep U.S. recession.
While this prediction has not yet come true, I remain as convinced as ever that Trump’s economic policies will lead to a very deep recession. Take away the high growth in technology and AI stocks, and the stock market would be in unstable territory. There are already signs that the U.S. economy has fragmented, with low and middle income earners and small businesses predicted to increasingly suffer.
We shall have to wait and see if my prediction was correct but one year early.
2025 PREDICTION THREE: Jagmeet Singh will resign as leader of the federal NDP.
Well, he did, after leading the federal NDP to its worst electoral outcome since its founding in 1961.
2025 PREDICTION FOUR: AI agents will finally appear.
We are not quite there yet with full-fledged AI agents doing a multitude of daily tasks for us, such as ordering groceries and booking airline flights. 2025 did see the introduction of very rudimentary AI agents, and expert predictions now are that 2026 will finally see a transformative increase in their adoption by mainstream users.
2025 PREDICTION FIVE: Vancouver mayor Ken Sim’s popularity will continue to decline.
This prediction proved to be right on the money. Two left-leaning candidates won the Vancouver byelection held on April 5th, while Sim’s two candidates came a distant sixth and seventh. His polling numbers remain very low, with most Vancouverites saying they believe the city is on the wrong track.
2025 PREDICTION SIX: Solar power generation will continue to increase exponentially.
This is another one I got right. China has become the largest market in the world for both photovoltaics (PV) and solar thermal energy, and that country’s commitment to developing both remains strong. Worldwide adoption of solar power continues to increase.
The U.S. under prior administrations had also invested significantly in renewable energy, which now produces almost one-fifth of U.S. electrical generation. Unfortunately, President Trump has reverted to actively promoting fossil fuels while blocking renewable energy projects and funding. Once again, Trump is making the wrong choice.
2025 PREDICTION SEVEN: Breakthroughs will continue in quantum computing.
I am going to give myself a C+ on this one. While it has been reported that 2025 saw measurable progress in the field, a fully functional quantum computer has not yet been produced. Those working in the field do remain optimistic that they are close to success.
2025 SUMMARY: The theme of this upcoming year will definitely be Change.
I got that one very right. 2025 saw many significant changes:
- Justin Trudeau is gone.
- Jagmeet Singh is gone.
- Mark Carney entered the political arena by winning leadership of the Liberal Party, thus becoming Prime Minister, and then going on to win the subsequent federal election with a strong minority.
- Pierre Poilievre, the front-runner at the beginning of the year, not only lost the election but also lost his own Ottawa Carleton seat. He finally managed to win a subsequent byelection in a strongly conservative Alberta riding.
- President Trump hit Canada with a number of tariffs and openly mused about making Canada the 51stS. state
- PM Carney travelled the world promoting the Canadian economy and signing trade deals, aiming to remove Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S.
- The year ended with Poilievre’s Conservatives losing three MPs, with two crossing the floor to the Liberals and one announcing his upcoming resignation from Parliament. Carney’s Liberals are now just one seat shy or a majority, while Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservatives is on increasingly shaky ground.
The Canadian political landscape is unrecognizable compared to what it was at the end of 2024.
Next week I will offer my predictions for 2026.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (January 4, 2026): 428.54ppm
One year ago (January 5, 2025): 426.41ppm
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