Prior to Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he would resign as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister, Pierre Poilievre’s lead over the Liberals was enormous. The Liberals were so low in the polls that they risked failing to win the number of seats required for official party status. The Conservatives were on track not just for a majority but for a super-majority.
In the last few weeks, poll numbers have begun to shift. While the Conservatives continue to lead, according to Ipsos, Poilievre’s lead has dropped by 5% while the Liberals have increased by 8%.
CBC’s Power and Politics Power Panel has done a good job of analyzing why the Liberals are gaining, although as they note, the polling landscape is still pretty volatile. The panel examined a few key factors that seem to be in play – a drop-off in the NDP vote, the threat from Donald Trump’s presidency, and the upcoming change in Liberal leadership.
We can almost certainly expect more changes in the polls as the March 9th leadership vote draws closer. Media coverage will continue to increase, and lesser-known candidates will likely drop out, essentially leaving the race between front-runner, Mark Carney, and former finance minister Crystia Freeland. Expect a further bump in Liberal polling numbers if/when Mark Carney wins the leadership and becomes Prime Minister. A new Leger poll says that with Carney as leader, the Liberals and Conservatives would be tied.
The Conservatives may be starting to panic.
The main threat to Poilievre may actually be Donald Trump with his promised tariffs on Canadian imports and his threat to make Canada America’s 51st state. The consumer carbon tax issue can no longer be turned into a ballot box question as the focus of Canadians has turned to the American threat. Out the window goes the “axe the tax” slogan the Conservatives have spent so much time and energy focusing on.
An even bigger potential problem for the Conservatives is the possibility that the Liberals could successfully portray Poilievre as a Trump wannabe, given his prior grandstanding on right-wing issues and government cuts. This did not seem to present a potential problem for the Conservative leader prior to Trump’s threats. Now, it could be the kiss of death. And it certainly won’t help them that Poilievre has been praised by Elon Musk.
The political landscape from now until the next federal election is going to be exciting, if more than a bit nerve-racking. It is now just possible that Pierre Poilievre will be defeated.
Hang onto your hats.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (February 14, 2025): 427.44ppm
One year ago (February 14, 2024): 422.79ppm
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