In my July 2, 2024 blog, I predicted that it will be only a matter of time before BC United leader Kevin Falcon resigns.
Since then, things have become even bleaker for Falcon and his party. When I made my prediction that Falcon would resign, I was not yet predicting the demise of BC United.
In a poll conducted from July 4th to 6th by Mainstream Research, the provincial NDP and provincial Conservatives tied with 33% support. Third place was held not by BC United but the Green Party at 10%. BC United had only a stunning 8% support. 338 Canada, which aggregates poll data, has the provincial NDP falling to 40% ±4%, virtually tied with Conservatives at 36%±5%, while the Green party and BC United are tied at 11% each.
If these numbers are even close to accurate, and stay the same for the just three more months until the 2024 election day, October 19th , BC United will not elect a single MLA. They will be finished. It will be impossible for the party to keep the lights on, and it will go the way of the B.C. Social Credit Party – known as the Socreds — which was the right-wing alternative for many years until it had had its day.
Many people may never have heard of the B.C. Social Credit Party. The social credit movement, dedicated to monetary reform and economic democracy, was founded in 1933 in Alberta by William Aberhart. Within two years, Aberhart had formed an official party and won the 1935 Alberta provincial election with over 54% of the popular vote. He served as Alberta Premier until 1943.
Inspired by the Alberta party’s success, the B.C. Social Credit Party was formed in 1937. However, the social credit movement in B.C. was initially fragmented into various factions, losing votes to a Liberal/Conservative alliance that had governed the province for many years. Over time, voters wearied of that governing coalition and the 1952 B.C. provincial election saw Social Credit finally become the governing party after narrowly beating the provincial Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) party — forerunner to today’s NDP — to form a minority government.
Social Credit leader W.A.C. Bennett became B.C.’s Premier, a position he held until 1972. Realizing the need to maintain a conservative alternative to CCF policies for voters, Bennett quickly morphed Social Credit into a more right-wing party – abandoning many earlier populist policies in the process.
The 1972 provincial election saw the B.C. NDP under Dave Barrett finally defeat the long-governing Socreds. W.A.C. Bennett retired a year later and was replaced as Social Credit leader by his son Bill Bennett. The younger Bennett’s Socreds went on to win the subsequent 1975 provincial election. He retired from politics in 1986.
The demise of the Socreds began under their next leader, Bill Vander Zahm. Under his leadership, social conservatives took control of the party. Although the Party won the 1986 provincial election, Vander Zahm’s leadership produced a number of scandals, and he was forced to resign in 1991. The provincial election later that year led to the defeat of the Socreds under new leader Rita Johnston, as the government was taken over by the B.C. NDP under Mike Harcourt. The Socreds were reduced to only electing 7 MLAs. Although the party did not entirely die at that time, they lost any further significance.
In the meantime, more mainstream Socreds, alienated by Vander Zahm’s social conservative policies, began to move to the provincial Liberal party. This exodus was enhanced when the provincial Liberals under then leader Gordon Wilson won a surprising 17 seats in the 1991 election, garnering over 33% of the popular vote and forming the Official Opposition.
Despite Wilson’s 1991 election success, he lost the B.C. Liberal’s leadership race in 1994 to challenger Gordon Campbell, who took up the conservative banner by shifting the party more to the right economically while de-emphasizing social conservative policies. Campbell’s Liberals won a majority in the 2001 provincial election. That party continued to govern until the 2017 election when under then leader Christy Clark they lost to an NDP/Green Party alliance. British Columbia has been governed by the NDP since 2017.
Meanwhile, the BC Liberals increasingly appeared to be a party looking for a direction. In 2022, with high hopes after going through a period of lackluster leadership, they elected as leader former Christy Clark cabinet minister Kevin Falcon.
However, the BC Liberals now look to be following the path to extinction travelled earlier by the B.C. Socreds. Even Falcon’s controversial decision to change the party’s name to BC United has not helped. John Rustad’s Conservatives now look to be the party that will unite B.C.’s right-wing voters.
By 2025, BC United will be a relic on display in a museum.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (July 16, 2024): 425.79ppm
One year ago (July 17, 2023): 420.92ppm
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