It is no longer if, but when Kevin Falcon will resign as leader of the moribund BC United party. It is very unlikely he will resign prior to the fast-approaching Oct. 19, 2024 provincial election, as there is no longer enough time to hold a leadership race and convention. If he does not resign prior to the election, he will resign on election night.
You can mark my words.
It is always difficult to pinpoint what was the last nail in the coffin, but I would say it was the announcement by candidate Chris Moore to abandon BC United and run instead with the BC Conservative Party.
Chris Moore had successfully campaigned to run as a BC United candidate in the riding of Powell River-Sunshine Coast. Then on Tuesday June 18th, he announced that he would rather join a squad with better odds of winning — the BC Conservative Party — as the odds for Falcon’s party were steeply sinking.
Chris Moore ‘s decision was just the most recent in a growing list of devastating blows to Kevin Falcon and BC United.
It all began when John Rustad was still an MLA with the BC Liberal Party (now BC United). A far-right politician who denies climate change science, he had made a number of public comments questioning that science. He refused to retract them, so on August 18, 2022, Falcon expelled him from the then BC Liberal caucus.
That was the right decision, and at the time it did not appear as though there would be any negative consequences for anyone other than the climate denier himself. Many predicted he would serve out his term as an independent and then leave the legislature.
How wrong those individuals were (me included). In March 2023, BC Conservatives welcomed Rustad into their party with open arms and made him their party leader.
Even then, the Conservatives didn’t seem to be much of a threat as their last provincial election candidate who had won his seat had been Scott Wallace in 1971. Two later members did sit briefly as BC Conservative MLAs: Vic Stephens, who won a byelection in 1978 and then lost in the 1979 general election; and NDP MLA Graham Lea, who had crossed the floor in 1986 to sit as a Progressive Conservative MLA only to quite politics before the next election.
Finally in 2023, for the first time since 1986, the BC Conservative party had a sitting MLA.
The next domino to fall was due to the meteoric rise in the polls of the federal Conservatives under Trumpian leader Pierre Poilievre. Their increase in poll numbers had a dramatic coattail effect on the profile and poll numbers of the provincial Conservatives. All of the sudden, Rustad’s Conservatives were running neck and neck in poll after poll with Falcon’s newly christened BC United party.
As the polls became worse and worse for Falcon’s party, the opportunists within his caucus, calculating the political currents, began abandoning ship:
- The first to cross the floor was Abbotsford MLA Bruce Banman on September 14, 2023 – giving the BC Conservatives the two MLAs needed for official party status.
- The next to defect, on May 31, 2024 was first-term BC United MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin and BC United caucus chair, Lorn Doerkson.
- The shock for many – and certainly to Falcon and BC United – was the June 3, 2024 surprising defection of MLA for Surrey South, Elenore Sturko, who champions gay rights and had been openly critical of John Rustand’s politics.
Each defection created its own ripple effect, pushing BC United even further down in the polls and lifting up the BC Conservatives.
Falcon’s only hope was proposing a merger or cooperation agreement between the two parties. His efforts were in vain, as the provincial Conservatives saw little upside and only a downside to any form of alliance.
Chris Moore is likely not to be the last BC United MLA or candidate to switch parties. Come this fall’s election, don’t be surprised if Kevin Falcon is the last man standing — if he has not already thrown in the towel.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (July 1, 2024): 425.74ppm
One year ago (July 1, 2023): 422.34ppm
Subscribe to Tim Louis
Keep up to date Tim's latest posts.