Here’s hoping Iran/US talks resume

I was waiting on tenterhooks for President Trump’s press conference Wednesday morning. In response to the Iranian ballistic missile strike on US airbases in Iraq the day prior, would he order a retaliatory American attack? Were we going to end up with another war in the Middle East? Iran, with a population of 80 million, would be a much more difficult adversary than was Iraq with its population of only 39 million.

I was anxiously awaiting Trump’s speech, as much due to his extreme unpredictability as the empathy Penny and I have for all our Iranian-Canadian friends in these difficult times—which have now been compounded the same day by the terrible air tragedy in Tehran. (Canada has the third largest population of Iranians living outside of Iran, and the Vancouver area is home for many of them.)

While Trump is always so difficult to predict, it would seem from Wednesday’s speech that he is not going to order a retaliatory strike at this time. This is almost certainly due to the fact that the Iranian ballistic missile strike did not result in any American casualties. It’s impossible to say with certainty, but it looks like Iran has carefully calibrated its response to avoid an escalation.

I also just heard Stephen Harper quoted on the current situation with Iran. Harper and Trump have much in common when it comes to the region. They both called Iran a “clear and present danger,” and they both enthusiastically supported US withdrawal from the nuclear pact that prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons. (Trump and Harper are also vague about de-escalation or how to prevent future loss of life on either side.)

So where do we go from here?

I would like to see Iran and the US get back to the bargaining table and negotiate. Prior to the US strike on General Suleimani, Iran had refused to come to the table unless the US lifts its crushing economic sanctions. These sanctions, in my opinion, have no validity. Under the Obama administration, Iran had entered into a binding multi-party agreement whereby it would limit its enrichment of uranium to very low levels and not develop nuclear weapons.

In May 2018, President Trump withdrew from that agreement and imposed the above-noted sanctions. There’s only one party that broke the agreement, and that’s the US. Nevertheless, Iran is prepared to negotiate a new multi-party agreement, if only Trump would suspend the sanctions that have caused a deep recession in Iran, one that’s hit the nation’s poor the hardest. (See this BBC report outlining the economic toll the US sanctions have taken.)

Europe would also much prefer a negotiated settlement, and perhaps France or Germany could act as a mediator.

Canada has not had an embassy in Iran since 2012 – perhaps it’s time to change that. Canada has diplomatic relations with many countries who have problematic human rights records (China and Saudi Arabia for example). Engagement and negotiation can be powerful tools to prevent loss of life and promote human rights. Permanent consular support would also mean Canada can better assist Canadians who have friends and family in Iran – this is urgent now more than ever.

Let’s hope calmer heads prevail, and both the US and Iran can further deescalate things, paving the way for Trump to announce a temporary suspension of the economic sanctions, which would result in Iran coming back to the bargaining table.

We cannot let despots, polemicists, or warmongers define the conversation when it comes to international relations.

Further reading:

Marina Nemat: ‘To those who have perished since the Iranian Revolution‘

---

Daily atmospheric CO₂ [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]

Week beginning on January 5, 2020: 413.37 ppm

Weekly value from 1 year ago: 409.94 ppm

---