Rough Seas Ahead for Alberta’s Premier?

My favourite provincial premier is Manitoba’s Wab Kenow.

There is no doubt in my mind that he will eventually become the leader of the federal NDP.

My least favourite premier is Alberta’s Danielle Smith.

She is one of Canada’s most right-wing politicians, and it finally seems possible that her days in office may be numbered.

More about Wab Kinew in future blogs. But let me tell you today why Danielle Smith is lying awake at night.

Two recent Alberta provincial political polls, put Alberta’s United Conservative Party (UCP), led by Smith, well ahead of the Alberta NDP, which is led by former Calgary mayor, Naheed Nenshi. Other political parties in Alberta have substantially less support.

Specifically, an October poll by Leger, has UCP support at 44% to the NDP’s 39%. That result mostly echoes a late September poll by Cardinal Research, which pegged UCP support at 43% to 36% for the NDP.

Both polls seem to show that if an Alberta provincial election were held today, Daniele Smith and her party would once again sail to victory.

Why then is Alberta’s version of Margaret Thatcher in potential trouble? Bear with me as I explain.

A deeper look at both the Leger and Cardinal polls indicates that Smith and the UCP may be starting to face political headwinds. While UCP support still leads that of other parties, Polling Canada comparisons show their support is starting to slip from the double-digit lead they enjoyed earlier in the year. NDP support is edging up, and the NDP has to be pleased with Leger reporting that Nenshi is now viewed more favourably than Smith as a leader – 43% to 38% — with 47% of Albertans saying their opinion of Smith has worsened over the past six months, and a full 61% reporting that they think the province is heading in the wrong direction.

A more significant story may lie in the changing numbers for the so-called minor parties:

• The Republican Party of Alberta.
• The Alberta Liberal Party.
• The Alberta Party.
• The Green Party of Alberta.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Green Party of Alberta (GPA) will likely remain a minor factor – generally polling at 3% or less.

The Republican Party of Alberty (RPA) is the province’s pro-independence party. Their overall level of support currently varies depending on the poll, with Cardinal Research so far the only group to report them at a high of 11%.  What may be more significant is that Cardinal reports that RPA support is cutting into the UCP vote share in rural Alberta.

The Alberta Liberal Party (ALP), founded in 1905, is the oldest active political party in the province. It is not affiliated with the federal Liberal Party. Despite a number of electoral successes over the years, it currently polls significantly behind the UCP and NDP. However, given its history, it can’t be entirely counted out as a factor.

Of most interest may be the Alberta Party (ABP), which describes itself as centrist and pragmatic. At one time a major force, today they are moribund as a party, not having elected an MLA since a single win by then-leader Greg Clark in 2015. Their remaining members are so few in number that it is said that they can hold a membership meeting in the proverbial telephone booth with room left over.

That may be about to change. On August 27, 2025, a special meeting of ABP members voted to rename the party as the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party (APC). On August 29, the party submitted a name change request to Elections Alberta.

Approximately three weeks later, Cardinal Research fielded their poll, which now included asking respondents how they would vote if the Alberta Progressive Conservatives were included as an option. That question upended the projected vote intention to NDP 30%, APC 28%, UCP 25%, RPA 11%, and ALP 4%.

If the APC name change is approved by Elections Alberta, Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party will be facing a major challenge – being now basically in a three-way tie with the NDP and APC.

I would be happy to see the Alberta government change. Fingers crossed that Elections Alberta grants the Alberta Party permission to become the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.

 

Daily atmospheric CO₂ [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]

Latest daily total (October 30, 2025): 425.58ppm

One year ago (October 30, 2024): 422.90ppm