How about some election trivia to get us started today?
In what post-World War II election did the federal Liberals get their highest percentage of the popular vote?
It was 1949. Louis St Laurent was their leader and they obtained 50.1% of the popular vote and 72.5% of the seats in Parliament.
In what post-WWII election did the federal Liberals get their second highest percentage of the popular vote?
It was 1953. Louis St Laurent again led the party to a resounding majority, with them winning 50.0% of the popular vote and 64.5% of the seats.
And last but not least, in what post-WWII election did the federal Liberals get their third highest percentage of the popular vote?
It was 1968 when Pierre Elliott Trudeau led the Liberals to capture 45.5% of the popular vote and 58.7% of the seats.
It is worth noting that in earlier Canadian elections, the Liberals at times won by even higher margins but third parties were generally not a factor then, and elections were two-party races between the Liberals and Conservatives.
The highest margin ever recorded was in 1917 when Robert Borden and his Unionist Party, a pro-conscription coalition of Conservatives and Liberals, won 57% of the popular vote. The Liberals’ highest ever margin was in 1904 under Wilfred Laurier when they won 52.5% of the popular vote.
We are now into the next federal election! On Sunday, March 23rd, Prime Minister Mark Carney called the election for April 28th, the soonest day possible. The shorter campaign will likely be better for Carney, as I predict that he will be much more prone to campaign errors than Pierre Poilievre will be.
While Carney has the Liberals in first place right now, anything might happen over the course of the election. His first problem may be the certainty or not of voter intentions. Angus Reid polling on March 17th showed that an impressive 66% of intended Conservative voters said that they were fully committed to the party, compared to only 49% who were fully committed to the Liberals. What this means is that Liberal vote intentions are likely more vulnerable than are Conservatives’ commitments. It is notable that current Liberal gains in the polls are coming at the expense of the NDP and Bloc Québécois. The Conservative vote is generally holding steady.
Problematic relationships with the media may impact both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, although again, the Liberal vote may be more vulnerable.
Poilievre has repeatedly raised his concerns about Canadian journalists and has made clear his plans to defund the CBC while expanding funding for right-wing media. The Conservatives’ latest salvo is to ban reporters from travelling on the campaign plane with Poilievre. However, these moves have so far done little to change Conservative voter intentions and seem unlikely to do so in the future.
Carney on the other hand is new to the pressure of continued media scrutiny. Particularly during the leadership race, he spoke more like the banker he had been rather than like a politician seeking to inspire voters. He has already pushed back against a journalist who questioned his potential conflicts of interest in relation to his assets. He seems to be improving but he is not used to the pressures of an election campaign, and potential Liberal voters may yet be open to changing allegiances.
Insiders are concerned that Mark Carney is at risk of doing a “John Turner” or a “Kim Campbell“. When John Turner was elected Liberal leader on June 30, 1984, after Pierre Trudeau’s resignation, he was riding high in the polls. However, like Carney, he was not an MP or a senator at that time, so called an election for 79 days later. He was badly defeated by Brian Mulroney, whose Progressive Conservatives won 50% of the popular vote, leaving the Liberals with only 40 seats.
Kim Campbell’s case also eerily resembles Carney’s. Campbell succeeded Brian Mulroney as Progressive Conservative leader and Prime Minister on June 25, 1993. At that time, she had a 51% approval rating. Unfortunately for Campbell, Mulroney, like Justin Trudeau in 2025, had postponed resigning for too long in the face of plummeting popularity, leaving Campbell with no choice but to call an election for the following October 25th. Like Turner before her, she lost badly – defeated by Jean Cretien’s Liberals who won 177 seats. Campbell lost her own seat to Liberal Hedy Fry, while her party came a distant fifth with only two seats and 16% of the popular vote.
There is yet another potential weakness in Carney’s polling numbers. And this is a weakness I hope he DOES have. At the end of 2024, the federal NDP was polling as high as 21%. A rash of recent polls now have them down to single digits. If the numbers stay where they are, the NDP will see their 25-seat caucus reduced to fewer than the 12 seats required for official party status.
Almost all of the NDP supporters who shifted to the Liberals over the last three months did so before Mark Carney moved into first place, ahead of Pierre Poilievre. Those NDP voters were terrified at the prospect of Poilievre winning the election, particularly given Donald Trump’s threats against Canada. Now, as the risk of a Poilievre victory becomes less and less likely, and the more likely it appears that Carney will win, the greater the likelihood that NDP voters who were worried enough to vote Liberal will feel comfortable moving back to the NDP.
My dream outcome is that Carney’s poll numbers remain strong enough that a large chunk of the NDP voters who are currently with the Liberals will return to the NDP, and that we end up on election day with a minority Liberal government, with the NDP once again holding the balance of power.
This is going to be an exciting election campaign!
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (March 24, 2025): 429.44ppm
One year ago (March 24, 2024): 426.35ppm
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