It’s that time of year again. Time to make my predictions for the new year. Let’s first take a look at the seven predictions I made for 2024:
- The United States prison system will admit its most unusual prisoner ever – former president Donald Trump.
Well, I did not get that one right.
- The transition to electric vehicles will shift into high gear.
Electric vehicle sales are now growing 25% year over year. In 2024, an estimated 15.2 million EVs will have been sold worldwide. China, by far the world’s largest car market, now accounts for around 58% of global production of electric vehicles (EVs)[1] with more than 1.5 million exports in 2023. Unfortunately, in most of the rest of the world, the shift to electric vehicles continues at a much slower pace.
So not yet high gear, but definitely heading in the right direction.
- World oil consumption will finally begin to decline.
While 2024 data is not yet available, indications are that I was wrong about this. Our world is paying the price as climate change accelerates.
- Premier David Eby will cruise to a landslide victory in the 2024 provincial election, leaving the opposition BC United in shambles.
David Eby certainly did not cruise to a landslide victory. However, BC United not only ended up in shambles but now looks to be extinct.
- Dramatic breakthroughs will be achieved in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
On this one, I was 100% on the mark. In fact, AI has advanced even faster than I had predicted.
- There will be no federal election.
Very, very fortunately, I was correct. I say fortunately because had there been a federal election in 2024, there is no doubt that Pierre Poilievre would have sailed to a landslide victory, which would have been very bad news for Canada.
- The Vancouver Canucks will do the unthinkable – they will win the Stanley Cup.
Well, hope springs eternal.
Now my predictions for 2025:
PREDICTION ONE: Donald Trump will not impose import tariffs on Canadian goods.
Trump has a track record of making outrageous and outlandish threats, but more often than not, when the dust settles, he does not follow through. By the time he has settled into office and worked his way through the items on his agenda that have a higher priority, it is an unfortunate likelihood that Pierre Poilievre will be Canada’s Prime Minister. By then, Poilievre will have worked out some sort of arrangement with Trump whereby Canada agrees to do more to prevent drugs such as fentanyl and illegal aliens from entering the United States via Canada, which is what Trump demands.
And I don’t expect Canada to become the 51st U.S. state.
PREDICTION TWO: Trump’s strategies will generate a deep U.S. recession.
Trump’s plans are so far detached from sound economic policy that there can be no doubt that he will cause a severe economic downturn. This will trigger the largest stock market decline since 2008. A clear sign that the stock market bears are about to take over from the bulls is the fact that Warren Buffet’s company Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stock holdings significantly and moved to cash.
PREDICTION THREE: Jagmeet Singh will resign as leader of the federal NDP.
The dramatic collapse of support for the federal Liberals should have been a golden opportunity for the federal NDP. Instead, the federal Conservatives have skyrocketed in the polls while the NDP languish at around 20% support amongst decided Canadians. Jagmeet could even lose his own seat in Burnaby South. Once the upcoming federal election is over, the knives will be out, and Jagmeet will resign. Who will be the new leader? Perhaps Don Davies, my favourite MP.
PREDICTION FOUR: AI agents will finally appear.
We can currently ask Google for say, airline flight times from our own city to a particular destination, but that’s about it. We must then do the legwork of booking and paying for the flight ourselves. Imagine being able to instruct your personalized AI agent to provide you with a list of flight options, and then act on your instructions to book the flight you select and pay for it, all on its own.
AI agents will utterly transform the way we get tasks done. To go back to the flight example, you will also be able to instruct your AI agent to order your taxi, book your hotel, and develop an itinerary for you. Almost every conceivable daily task will now be performed for you by your AI agent.
PREDICTION FIVE: Vancouver mayor Ken Sim’s popularity will continue to decline.
Mayor Sim is just not made for the mayor’s chair. He has not the temperament or even the ability to adequately fulfil this position. We will also continue to witness further divisions within his ABC party.
PREDICTION SIX: Solar power generation will continue to increase exponentially.
Although the generation of electricity by solar power, wind, and other renewables is still dwarfed worldwide by coal and gas, the sector is growing dramatically. The U.S. and India are among the countries now increasingly relying on renewables. Canada is not far behind. Most significantly, China is now transforming its economy and climate impact through its widespread and increasing usage of renewable energy.
2025 will see an even larger increase in global investments in renewable energy as costs continue their dramatic decline, coupled with advancements and price declines in battery storage options, making it possible for the world to finally achieve a clean energy future.
PREDICTION SEVEN: Breakthroughs will continue in quantum computing.
If you think AI is amazing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Quantum computing is AI on steroids. In December 2024, Google revealed a significant advancement in quantum computing – their Willow chip. Using Willow, their quantum computer was able to perform in mere minutes a mathematical calculation that would have taken a conventional supercomputer millions of years.
SUMMARY: The theme of this upcoming year will definitely be Change. As well as my predictions above, Canada’s political landscape will change now that Trudeau is resigning as Prime Minister and Liberal leader.
My fingers are crossed. Let’s hope 2025 will be better than 2024.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (January 12, 2025): 427.39ppm
One year ago (January 11, 2024): 422.78ppm
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