On September 17, 2024, hundreds of pagers being used by the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah simultaneously exploded across the country, killing at least 12 individuals, including children, and injuring nearly 3,000 more, some critically.
While Israel has not claimed responsibility, it is widely believed that this was their doing, and it has been reported that Israel informed the United States that it was responsible.
This was clearly a long-planned attack. This past year, Hezbollah members had switched from communicating by cellphones to using pagers, thinking they would be more secure against Israeli spying and harder to track than GPS enabled phones. The pagers in question had been purchased from a European subsidy of a Taiwanese company. It is not yet clear how or when the explosives and remote detonation switches were inserted into the pagers.
It quickly became apparent that the pager explosions were just the first step in a multi-phase, coordinated attack. The following day, more electronic devices started exploding in southern Beirut and other parts of Lebanon – including walkie-talkie radios, mobile phones, laptops, and even some solar energy systems. Early reports indicated that at least 20 people were killed with another 450 injured, including some who were attending funerals for individuals killed by exploding pagers the day before.
Israel was not yet done. On September 20th, an Israeli air attack on a Beirut suburb killed a further 14 people, including senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil.
So far, Hezbollah on the other hand had been reasonably restrained. Hezbollah began launching missiles into northern Israel in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, pledging to continue until a truce is declared. However, while there had been almost daily exchanges at the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7, 2023, the death toll had been relatively moderate: 600 soldiers and 100 civilians in Lebanon and about 50 soldiers and civilians in Israel. The only major disruption was that thousands of people had been forced to evacuate their homes on both sides of the border.
Tragically, this conflict is now escalating and could easily get out of control.
Israel has kept up its indiscriminate attacks on Hezbollah, using what appears to be a hacked Lebanese telephone network to warn residents to evacuate. On September 23rd widespread bombardments of southern and eastern Lebanon killed at least 492 people and injured at least 1,645 in the deadliest day since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Al Jazeera, citing Lebanon’s health ministry, reported that “the death toll on Monday included at least 35 children, 58 women and two medics as the bombardments hit homes, medical centres, ambulances and cars of people trying to flee.”
Hezbollah has confirmed that a further Israeli attack September 24th killed Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, one of their senior commanders. Netanyahu claimed at that time to have struck 1,600 sites in Lebanon used by Hezbollah. He does not rule out a ground invasion. In the meantime, Israel continues to bomb Gaza.
So far, Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel have remained relatively limited and targeted, although that may be changing. A September 18th drone barrage killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded several others. On September 21st and 22nd, they launched a volley of rockets into northern Israel, including their farthest-reaching attack to date. On September 25th, they went further, launching a missile targeting Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. It was brought down by Israel’s air defense system.
Further escalation may be coming. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has labeled the Israeli remote detonation of pagers and other electronics “a declaration of war” and has vowed to continue attacks on Israel as long as Israel continues attacking Gaza.
There are other considerations at play in this situation. Hezbollah is heavily supported by Iran and is primarily located in southern Lebanon. While neither Iran nor Lebanon want this war to escalate, both are now under pressure. Lebanon may feel forced to respond to Israel’s indiscriminate bombardments which are killing many innocent Lebanese residents, including women and children. Iran is not under direct attack but is obviously concerned. Iran’s revolutionary guard, which openly supports Hezbollah, has already ordered its members to stop using all communication devices and the country has increased security at its nuclear and missile sites.
World leaders, including many from the Middle East, are reacting with alarm to the escalating situation and the possibility of a full-scale war. President Biden has urged de-escalation, saying a diplomatic response is the only way forward. The plea for a temporary pause has been taken up by members of the United Nations, including France and Lebanon. The United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, echoing the call for a truce, bluntly told a UN security council meeting that “all hell is breaking loose.”
There can be no doubt that Israel is doing everything it can to provoke all-out war with Hezbollah. As I outlined in detail in my January 14, 2023 blog, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu believes that his only hope for staying in power is to avoid peace at all costs.
To date, American president Joe Biden appears not to have been willing to read the riot act to Israel, which has faced no consequences for ignoring U.S. pleas to cease attacking residents in Gaza, in the West Bank, and now Lebanon. It is yet to be seen whether or not Washington will be finally willing to do so. And while institutions such as the United Nations and the World Court condemn Israeli actions, they still take no effective steps to force Israel to end the slaughter.
It is long past time for those hoping to avoid an all-out war in the Middle East to take action and do everything they can to stop Israeli aggression.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (September 21, 2024): 422.19ppm
One year ago (September 26, 2023): 418.65ppm
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