It has taken far far too long but we may be witnessing the final days of power of the Middle East’s most notorious war criminal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
On May 31, 2024, American President Joe Biden announced a bold and thoughtful road map that, if accepted by both combatants — Israel and Hamas — will achieve two seemingly impossible objectives – not only an immediate ceasefire that will bring to an end Israel’s genocidal attack on the innocent civilians in Gaza but also achieve a permanent peace based on a two-state solution.
Biden’s plan proposes three phases:
- The first phase, which would last for six weeks, would include a complete cease-fire, a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas in Gaza, and the release of a number of Hamas hostages, including women, the elderly, and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The remains of hostages killed would be returned to their families. Humanitarian aid would massively expand with 600 trucks allowed into Gaza each day.
- Phase two would include the release of the remaining hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza.
- Phase three would see the start of major reconstruction in Gaza.
Hamas immediately signaled that it was very interested and receptive to Biden’s proposal; on May 6th they had announced their acceptance of a virtually identical ceasefire proposal by Egypt and Qatar.
The Biden proposal would bring an immediate end to the Israeli onslaught which has resulted in over 36,000 deaths of innocent civilians in Gaza, as well as the damage or destruction of more than half of Gaza’s homes, 80% of commercial facilities, 86% of school buildings (including all universities), 83% of groundwater wells, and 257 places of worship. Only 14 out of 35 hospitals are even partially functioning.
The proposal would also avert the imminent famine now faced by Gaza’s over two million residents, which has been caused by Israel’s continuing refusal to permit sufficient food and medical supplies to enter the area. A report released on June 6th by the United Nations children’s agency UNICEF indicated that 90 percent of children in Gaza lack nutrition and face “severe” threats to their survival, growth, and development”.
Although Biden initially announced his roadmap as an Israeli plan, the situation is not that straightforward. On June 1st, the day after Biden’s announcement, Netanyahu flatly and unequivocally rejected the plan, and Israeli defence chief Yoav Gallant has said that Hamas must first be ‘dismantled’.
On the other hand, Netanyahu’s government is facing pressure from the families of Israeli captives to accept Biden’s proposal. Perhaps in response, Netanyahu’s chief foreign policy advisor confirmed on June 2nd that the Biden plan was the framework that Israel had agreed to, noting that, “it’s not a good deal but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them“.
In the meantime, Israeli attacks on Gaza continue. On June 6th, Israeli forces bombed a school in Central Gaza housing displaced Palestinians, killing at least 40 and wounding more than 70. And receiving less international attention, Israeli forces also continue daily attacks on the occupied West Bank.
The American president will have egg on his face if he allows Netanyahu to thumb his nose at this plan, and there can be no doubt that Washington will now do whatever is necessary to force the Israeli Prime Minister to do an about face and agree, While tensions have continued to rise, Biden has observed in a Time magazine interview that there is “every reason for people to draw” the conclusion that Netanyahu is perpetuating the conflict for his own political ends.
Netanyahu is indeed facing political problems – primarily of his own making.
After the last Israeli election, he managed to retain power only by forming a coalition government with the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, giving party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir and his running mate Bezalel Smotrich prominent positions in his cabinet. Unsurprisingly, both have made it quite clear that should Netanyahu agree to Biden’s plan — succumbing to pressure from much of the world, particularly Washington – they would immediately end the coalition, which would likely cause the collapse of the government — resulting in fresh elections which, according to numerous public opinion polls, would see Bemjamin Netanyahu thrown onto the ash heap of history.
It could also see him thrown into jail, as he is currently on trial in Israel for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. After a prolonged delay, the trial resumed on December 4, 2023. It is still ongoing, but Netanyahu has now requested that witness testimonies be postponed until the end of the Gaza war. Once the war ends, the trial will resume.
All of the above is to say nothing of the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court seeking an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on war crimes charges. If the court approves the prosecutor’s request, a warrant will be issued for Netanyahu’s arrest, which will, for all intents and purposes, restrict his ability to leave Israel for the rest of his life.
As of June 6th, the situation remains at a stalemate. Hamas has announced that it will reject the proposal without a permanent ceasefire, although international mediators continue to press them to accept the Biden plan as presented. And Israeli attacks continue with no firm commitment yet to the plan. As the BBC has remarked, the situation has now turned into “a deadly game of survival.”
Nonetheless, I remain hopeful that the Biden plan will succeed and that looking down the road, with the Middle East’s largest obstacle to peace — Benjamin Netanyahu — out of the way, we might finally witness not only a desperately needed immediate ceasefire in Gaza but crucially, the foundation being laid for a solution that will address the root causes of the current Israel/Hamas war.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (June 4, 2024): 427.48ppm
One year ago (June 6, 2023): 424.43ppm
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