Here are my predictions for 2024:
PREDICTION ONE: The United States prison system will admit its most unusual prisoner ever – former president Donald Trump.
Never before in history has an American president gone to jail. However, ex-president Trump is facing a barrage of legal problems: four criminal cases, as well as six lawsuits. From allegedly paying hush money to pornography star Stormy Daniels to charges of stealing classified documents when he left the White House, Trump faces a year of legal troubles,
Perhaps the most serious of all are the two criminal cases related to his alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election. The first, scheduled to come to trial on March 4th, is a four-count federal case alleging that Trump conspired to defraud the U.S. by illegally subverting the results of that election. The prosecutor in this case is Jack Smith, an American attorney with a well-deserved reputation for always meticulously preparing his cases, and whose accomplishments include investigating and prosecuting war crimes in the Kosovo War at the Hague Court.
The timing of this federal trial may still be problematic as Trump’s lawyers continue to appeal the legality of the case, arguing that Trump as president was immune from prosecution – an argument that a federal appeals court’s members signaled they would reject during a January 8th hearing. If they rule against Trump, the ruling is likely to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. On a parallel track, on December 19th, the Colorado Supreme Court declared that Trump was ineligible to run for the White House under the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause. The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal of this ruling on February 8th, likely leading to a speedy decision. Decisions and timing from the U.S. Supreme Court could affect the timing of the election interference trial. Even if convicted federally of conspiracy, in the, I hope, unlikely event that Trump should be re-elected president, he could conceivably pardon himself.
The most consequential case for Trump, and for my prediction, may be the Georgia Election Interference Case which charges Trump and 18 co-defendants with racketeering in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. Although Trump continues to claim immunity from prosecution here as well, and the case itself is complicated, should Trump be convicted of racketeering as charged, he would face five to twenty years in jail with no possibility of parole for at least five years. As this is not a federal case, he could not as president pardon himself.
I do not see any way out for Trump.
PREDICTION TWO: The transition to electric vehicles will shift into high gear.
We are about to see a revolution in the availability and likely the cost of electric vehicles (EVs). The world’s number one car exporter in 2023 was, for the first time ever, China. Just as this nation has been leading the world for many years now in solar panels. it is now also leading the world in electric vehicle production and exports. Today a citizen of China can purchase a brand-new budget EV for as little as $4,500 American. It is only a matter of time before China delivers electric vehicles to the rest of the world at a similar price range. Before long, government regulations mandating a shift to EVs will no longer be necessary. Instead, consumers will flock en masse to EVs because it simply makes economic sense, given the fact that with an EV, one’s gas bill disappears. Ditto maintenance.
PREDICTION THREE: World oil consumption will finally begin to decline.
In large part due to PREDICTION TWO above, the world will finally begin to say goodbye to fossil fuels. A second and almost as significant cause will be the continuing decline in the cost of solar energy. It is still too early to tell longer term consequences, but the likelihood of a climate collapse is diminishing ever so slightly.
PREDICTION FOUR: Premier David Eby will cruise to a landslide victory in this year’s provincial election, leaving the opposition B.C. United in shambles.
I think the B.C. Conservatives will win about seven seats. B.C. United will win more or less the same number. This will be good news for all of us who are committed to social justice. While Premier Eby’s environmental record leaves a lot to be desired, it is infinitely better than Kevin Falcon’s or John Rustad’s. In fact, I am cautiously optimistic that with an election victory under his belt, our premier will begin to move much more decisively on the environmental front.
PREDICTION FIVE: Dramatic breakthroughs will be achieved in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, will continue to make significant progress, including in its quest to develop robots that learn and are capable of performing all of the household tasks we must now perform for ourselves.
PREDICTION SIX: There will be no federal election.
Neither Prime Minister Trudeau nor the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh want a federal election in 2024. This is due in large part to the surging increase in support for the federal Conservatives. Fingers crossed that I am correct. If I am wrong and there is a federal election, I fear that Conservative Pierre Poilievre will be elected Prime Minister and will then implement some of the most right-wing policies Canada has ever seen. For instance, it will mean the end of the CBC.
PREDICTION SEVEN: The Vancouver Canucks will do the unthinkable – they will win the Stanley Cup.
We are now at the half-way point in this year’s hockey season and the Canucks are in first place in the Western Conference, Pacific Division. With so much of the season having been played, hockey experts are now more confidently predicting that this year’s version of the Canucks is the real deal and will finally capture the trophy.
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (January 24, 2024): 422.85ppm
One year ago (January 24, 2023): 419.94ppm
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