At the beginning of 2023, I made seven predictions for the upcoming year. Let’s take a look at those predictions and see how good — or not so good – were my prognostication abilities.
PREDICTION ONE: The war in Ukraine would come to an end not on the battlefield but at the negotiating table.
Sadly, the war has not come to an end. However, it appears as though Russia and Ukraine are now at a stalemate, with neither side able to make any territorial advancements. I am more hopeful than ever that we will see a negotiated end to this tragic war. I still hold to last year’s prediction that the negotiated settlement will include a commitment by Ukraine never to allow nuclear weapons on its soil in return for a complete Russian withdrawal.
PREDICTION TWO: There would be no provincial election in B.C.
On this one, I was bang on. Premier David Eby did not drop the writ. We can now say with certainty that there will be a provincial election on or before October 19th in 2024. With the political right now divided between the provincial Conservatives and B.C. United (formerly the B.C. Liberal Party) it looks as thought the B.C. NDP will sail to a comfortable victory.
This appears to have been accurate with One City’s Christine Boyle providing the only effective opposition to the ABC party on Vancouver City Council. The Vancouver Greens have been very supportive of Councillor Boyle but more often than not it is Councillor Boyle who has been leading the charge.
COPE does not have any representation on Vancouver City Council but it does have the most effective School Trustee ever elected in the history of the Vancouver School Board (VSB): Suzie Mah. What makes Ms. Mah so remarkable is the fact that she is not only performing head and shoulders above her fellow VSB trustees but is also making time to rebuild COPE. She is meeting regularly with every Vancouver MLA and MP as well as the Vancouver District Labour Council and many other key individuals and organizations. COPE’s donations are increasing every month, and they are out in the community more often than they ever were, while all other municipal political parties are rarely seen outside of 12th & Cambie. Of note has been COPE’s presence at all of the demonstrations calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. In fact, COPE has been the only Vancouver municipal party to issue a public statement calling for a Gaza ceasefire.
PREDICTION FOUR: Donald Trump would fade in a blaze of glory.
Well, I sure got that one wrong. Donald Trump today is a more dangerous force than ever before. Should he win the 2024 Presidential election, we will surely see the end of democracy in the United States.
PREDICTION FIVE: Cuba would continue to amaze the world.
On this one, I got it right. In spite of being the victim of the most brutal economic siege, Cuba continues to astound the world with its ability to deliver top notch free health care to all of its citizens. Their infant mortality rate continues to fall — it is now one of the lowest in the world — and life expectancy overall in Cuba continues to increase year over year. Cuba’s commitment to the real things that matter makes it an example we should all be emulating.
I am so pleased to be able to say I got this one bang on. Fusion power, the opposite of nuclear power, fuses atoms instead of splitting them. The fuels required for the process are deuterium and tritium, both heavy isotopes of hydrogen. Deuterium can be extracted inexpensively from seawater. Tritium is also abundant in nature. Fusion power is environmentally friendly, creating no harmful atmospheric emissions and producing no radioactive waste.
Bill Gates, along with other investors and partners, sponsor the fledgling Commonwealth Fusion System (CFS) which is collaborating with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on building the world’s first fusion device to produce more energy than it consumes, which is slated for completion in 2025. Other ground-breaking initiatives include Helion Energy in Everett, Washington which declares it is building the world’s first fusion power plant. It is one of five fusion companies developing in the Pacific Northwest, including B.C. based General Fusion which expects to be operational in the mid-2030s.
Fusion power will soon deliver almost free electricity with no carbon emissions. If humanity can roll it out quickly enough, we may avert a climate collapse — just in the nick of time.
PREDICTION SEVEN: I gave 75% odds that there would be a federal election in 2023.
Thank goodness, I got this wrong as if there had been a federal election, Canada would now almost certainly have one of the most right-wing Prime Ministers in its history – Pierre Poilievre.
And now for next year. In my next blog I’ll reveal my New Year’s predictions for 2024. Happy New Year to you all!
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (January 1, 2024): 422.23ppm
One year ago (December 30, 2022): 419.10ppm
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