Let’s hope with all our might that he is!
Don’t get me wrong – I have not, am not, and never will be a capital-L Liberal. Nevertheless, the stronger the federal Liberals are, the greater the possibility that Pierre Poilievre will be unable to breach the barricades.
Let’s back up for a moment to see how Canada has arrived at a point where a politician who spouts soundbites like Ronald Reagan on steroids (see my September 13, 2023 blog) can be perilously close to being given the keys to 24 Sussex Drive, the official residence of the Prime Minister.
Justin Trudeau has been in power now for eight years. Every Prime Minister has a shelf life. His waning popularity and growing vulnerability have been evident from the outcomes of the last two federal elections.
After both elections, the federal Conservatives — who have a habit of eating their young — disposed of their then current leaders, Andrew Sheer after the 2019 vote and then Erin O’Tool after the 2021 vote. Both were condemned for failing to produce a victory for the party in only their first campaigns as leader.
Then along came Mr. Soundbite.
On September 10, 2022 the federal Conservatives chose as their new leader a cold, calculating, heartless, but quotable soundbite machine.
Over the past six months, polls have shown that federal Liberal support under Trudeau is not on a gentle downward slope. It is cratering.
Poilievre’s Conservatives are now ahead of Trudeau’s Liberals by a country mile – 9% as of October 1, 2023. This has set in motion the ever-predictable chain reaction. Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs), fretting over their own political futures, behind closed doors are calling for Justin Trudeau’s head.
It will be only a matter of months before Trudeau announces his resignation as leader and the Liberals announce a date for a leadership convention.
Although a week is an eternity in politics, as of right now, all the smart money is on Mark Carney being elected as the new Liberal leader at this convention.
On September 27, 2023, Carney gave the keynote address at Imagine Canada’s Leadership Roundtable. He sent out all the right signals. He moved effortlessly from fluid English to fluid French. He included just the right number of jabs at the federal Conservatives. He is apparently very well informed on the number one crisis facing humanity today – the looming climate collapse (the proof will be in the pudding as they say).
Although I am not a fan of becoming too dependent on market solutions to solve this existential catastrophe we have looming on the near horizon, I have to say that I am very impressed with the very creative and well thought out market solutions that Carney believes we must immediately put into place. In essence, he is proposing a financial system for net zero that includes a transformation of climate risk management, climate-related financial reporting, and climate-related investments.
Carney’s background leaves no doubt as to his intellectual depth and capacity. Juxtaposed to quotes from the Conservative soundbite machine, a career politician who lacks any depth or substance – all fizzle and no steak. – Carney’s pronouncements will be rich, deep, and appealing.
I do not want Mark Carney to deliver a majority for the federal Liberals in the 2025 federal election. My dream outcome would be a Carney minority government with the NDP holding the balance with enough MPs to be able to push Carney to implement positive, progressive solutions to the problems currently facing Canadians — most importantly the looming climate collapse.
Remember what Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, said about his time in office? It was the most rewarding when the 1972 federal election gave him only a minority government with the NDP holding the balance of power: he had the ability to push his caucus in a more progressive direction and to somewhat weaken the corporate wing of his party.
Here’s to kryptonite!
Daily atmospheric CO2 [Courtesy of CO2.Earth]
Latest daily total (October 04, 2023): 418.56ppm
One year ago (October 4, 2022): 415.16ppm
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